Consumer Confidence Index: A Key Recession Indicator

3

Underlying value was 100.3 as of August 1, 2024

Status 🚦

Score: 3
Underlying value: 100.3
Last updated: August 1, 2024

Scoring method: (1) Compare the current CCI reading to its historical average. (2) Evaluate the slope of its trend over past 3, 6, and 12 months.

Current score reason: The CCI is slightly below the historical average value at the start of a recession. The value's been trending down over the past 12 months, but with some fluctuations. In recent months, it's been a bit more stable.

Description 📝

The Consumer Confidence Index® measures consumer's optimism about the state of the economy and their personal financial situation. It's based on a monthly survey of 5,000 households that assesses their attitudes and expectations about current and future economic conditions.

Use as a recession indicator 🤔

If consumers are confident, they'll spend more. This leads to economic growth. If consumers are pessimistic, they'll spend less. This may lead to a recession.

History 📚

The CCI was developed by The Conference Board in 1967. It's since been used by policymakers and economists to represent consumer sentiment.

Performance ⚖️

Significant declines in the CCI have consistently preceded or coincided with recessions. However, it's often recommended to consider other signals of economic activity in addition.

Additional info

"US Consumer Confidence." The Conference Board. Accessed 2024-08-04.
"Consumer confidence index." Wikipedia. Accessed 2024-08-04.
James McWhinney. "Understanding the Consumer Confidence Index." Investopedia. Accessed 2024-08-04.
Jason Bram and Sydney Ludvigson. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race." Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Jeremy M. Piger. "Consumer Confidence Surveys: Do They Boost Forecasters' Confidence?." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Accessed 2024-08-04.
Jennifer Nash. "Consumer Confidence Ticked Up in July." VettaFi Advisor Perspectives. Accessed 2024-08-04.

Disclaimer(s)

Consumer Confidence Index is a registered trademark of The Conference Board, Inc. This website is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by The Conference Board, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI)